2006 Hurricane Season

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may be one of the factors affecting the hurricane season in the North Atlantic.  The composite of sea surface temperature anomalies leading up to the 2006 hurricane season is shown on the left.   The drought effects of the 2005 La Nina are shown below.   NOAA is predicting another busy year in the North Atlantic.  The first tropical storm of the North Atlantic season was named Alberto on June 11, 2006    Go to NOAA for the full 2006 season prediction

 

Comparison of the start of 2005 season and 2006 season

Mid-Season Revised Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

Why the reduction in storms?
NOAA cites three main reasons for reducing their forecast numbers:

  1. Sea surface temperatures anomalies (departures from normal) cooled during June and July. This happened due to stronger trade winds over the Atlantic. In addition, surface pressures have been higher than average. Hurricane formation is enhanced when lower surface pressures are present.
  2. La Nina died quicker than expected. This has resulted in higher wind shear over the Atlantic.
  3. The persistent upper-level ridge (and associated westward extension of the Bermuda High) over the eastern U.S., which contributed to the extremely active 2003-2005 hurricane seasons, is not present this year.

NOAA does not make seasonal forecasts of where hurricanes might make landfall, but notes that similar above-normal seasons have historically averaged 2-3 landfalling hurricanes in the continental United States and 2-3 hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.
From Dr. Jeff Master's Weatherundergroung Blog of 8:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2006 Used with Permission for educational purposes .

Storms of 2006

Month Storms
June Alberto
July Beryl
August Chris
September
October
November

 

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